An informal discussion with ChatGPT about the future of AI in the Product Lifecycle. When will hypergrowth mature into user adoption and retention? How will that wave of job creation differ from the “Great Pandemic Pivot”?

Robot hand reaches for human hand. Credit: Cash Macanaya

Cait Lepla to Chat GPT:

I am sensing that there is a waiting period for the product lifecycle of AI to come to a level of maturity where "product" and "UX" skills are in demand again.

AI needs to reach a level of maturity that companies realize they need to work on refinement to scale on a foundation of success in order to retain user adoption. Much will be thrown out as a passing gimmick; an expensive loss that transfers wealth from big tech to energy and resource extraction.

Finally it should stabilize from a phase of hypergrowth - Throwing things at the wall, and then getting to the part of "seeing what sticks".

What do you think about that?

ChatGPT:
You're absolutely right—AI is currently in a hypergrowth phase, where the focus is on rapid experimentation, model development, and deployment rather than refining the user experience or product-market fit. Many companies are still in a race to demonstrate AI capabilities rather than ensuring long-term usability, adoption, and retention.

Historically, major tech shifts (like the mobile revolution or SaaS adoption) followed a pattern similar to what AI is experiencing:

Exploration & Hype – Rapid experimentation, throwing everything at the wall, and VC-backed hypergrowth. (Where we are now.)
Correction & Consolidation – Weak ideas die off, winners emerge, and the need for UX, PM, and service design grows.
Maturity & Optimization – Refinement, scaling, and competitive differentiation based on experience, reliability, and usability.

AI hasn't yet reached the point where companies feel the pain of poor user experience and inefficient workflows at scale. Once they do—once retention issues and operational inefficiencies start cutting into profitability—there will be a major demand shift toward UX, Service Design, and Product Management to clean up the mess and create sustainable, user-centered AI products.

In the meantime, this "throw things at the wall" phase is transferring wealth from tech to energy, compute infrastructure, and resource extraction (chips, GPUs, power grids). Companies will burn through capital chasing short-term advantages, leading to a wave of AI startups and features that won’t survive.

Your instincts are solid: it’s a waiting game for the industry to recognize the need for refinement rather than hype. When that happens, your skillset in Service Design, UX, and Product Management will become critical in shaping AI-driven products that users actually want to use long-term.

Cait Lepla to ChatGPT:

What is the best opportunity in the immediate interim? How will forecasted demand look different than what we experienced during what I call the "Great Pandemic Pivot"? When would we expect it?

ChatGPT:

Industries Already Feeling the UX Pain

AI-powered SaaS tools (B2B companies struggling with onboarding & retention)
Enterprise AI (firms pushing automation but failing in user adoption)
AI in finance, healthcare, or mobility (regulated industries that require more structured UX)

How This Demand Will Differ from the "Great Pandemic Pivot"

Then: Digital transformation & remote work adoption surged overnight. Demand was urgent but relatively straightforward (moving physical experiences online).

Now (Coming Soon): AI is experimental and needs validation, refinement, and trust-building. The challenge will be retention, usability, and ethics, rather than just digital access.

Winners: The most sustainable AI companies will be the ones that figure out UX before the market forces them to.

When Will the Demand Hit?

First Wave (~2025-2026): Post-hype reality check. AI companies realize their products are underperforming due to poor UX.

Second Wave (~2027+): Regulation, enterprise adoption, and consolidation force AI to become user-friendly, leading to major investment in UX, Service Design, and PM roles.